The world economy

　　全球经济一览

　　Dominant and dangerous

　　支配力与危险性并存

　　As America’s economic supremacy fades, the primacy of the dollar looks unsustainable

　　随着美国经济霸权的衰落，美元的首要地位难以维系

　　Oct 3rd 2015 | From the print edition

　　IF HEGEMONS are good for anything, it is for conferring stability on the systems they dominate. For 70 years the dollar has been the superpower of the financial and monetary system. Despite talk of the yuan’s rise, the primacy of the greenbackis unchallenged. As a means of payment, a store of value and a reserve asset, nothing can touch it. Yet the dollar’s rule hasbrittlefoundations, and the system it underpins is unstable. Worse, the alternative reserve currencies are flawed. A transition to a more secure order will bedevilishly hard.

　　要说霸权是有益的，这是因为霸权赋予其主导体系以稳定性。70年以来，美元一直是金融货币体系中的超级强权。尽管关于人民币崛起的言论不绝于耳，美元的首要地位仍不可挑战。同时，美元作为一种支付手段、价值储存手段以及储备资产，它的地位谁都撼动不了。然而，美元的统治基础是脆弱的，并且其巩固的体系亦不稳定。除此之外更糟糕的是，候补储备货币带有缺陷。由此看来，向一个更加稳健的秩序过渡是极其困难的。

　　When the buck stops

　　当美元不再占据统治地位

　　For decades, America’s economic might legitimised the dollar’s claims to reignsupreme. But, as our special report this week explains, afaultlinehas opened between America’s economiccloutand its financial muscle. The United States accounts for 23% of global GDP and 12% of merchandise trade. Yet about 60% of the world’s output, and a similar share of the planet’s people, lie within ade factodollar zone, in which currenciesare pegged tothe dollar or move in some sympathy with it. American firms’ share of the stock of international corporate investment has fallen from 39% in 1999 to 24% today. But Wall Streetsets the rhythmof markets globally more than it ever did. American fund managers run 55% of the world’s assets under management, up from 44% a decade ago.

　　几十年来，美国繁荣的经济一直是美元占支配地位的合理依据。但正如我们本周专题报道所指出的，美国经济影响力以及其金融实力间逐渐拉开差距。美国经济占全球生产总值的23%，商品贸易额占全球的12%。然而，全球60%的产量，以及相类似的全球人口占比，都存在于实际(意义)上的美元区内——在该区域内，货币与美元相挂钩，抑或与美元共进退。美国企业占国际企业投资股票的份额，从1999年的39%下降至今日的24%。然而，华尔街相比以前更能确立市场的基调以对全球经济产生影响。美国基金经理管理着全球55%的资产——而这一比例在十年前为44%。

　　The widening gap between America’s economic and financial power creates problems for other countries, in the dollar zone and beyond. That is because the costs of dollar dominance are starting to outweigh the benefits.

　　美国经济(影响力)与金融实力间不断拉大的差距，为美元区内外的其他国家制造了许多问题，这是由于美元主导地位的成本正开始超过其所带来的收益。

　　First, economies must endure wildgyrations. In recent months the prospect of even a tiny rate rise in America has sucked capital from emerging markets,batteringcurrencies and share prices. Decisions of the Federal Reserve affect offshore dollar debts and deposits worth about $9 trillion. Because some countries link their currencies to the dollar, their central banks must react to the Fed. Foreigners own 20-50% of local-currency government bonds in places like Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, South Africa and Turkey: they are more likely to abandon emerging markets when American rates rise.

　　首先，经济体必须承受难以控制的波动起伏。最近数月，全球普遍认为美联储会做出加息决定，即便只是极小的加息幅度，这一预期让美国经济吸纳了来自新兴市场的资本，沉重地打击了各国货币与股价。美联储的决策影响着价值约9万亿美元的离岸美元债务和存款。因为一些国家将本国货币与美元挂钩，其央行必须对美联储做出回应。像在印度尼西亚、马来西亚、墨西哥、南非、土耳其的一些地方，外国人持有20%至50%不等的地方政府债券：因此，当美国决定加息时外国投资者更有可能放弃新兴市场(的投资资本)。

　　At one time the pain from capital outflows would have been mitigatedby the stronger demand—including for imports—that prompted the Fed to raise rates in the first place. However, in the past decade America’s share of global merchandise imports has dropped from 16% to 13%. America is the biggest export market for only 32 countries, down from 44 in 1994; the figure for China has risen from two to 43. A system in which the Fed dispenses and the world convulses is unstable.

　　强劲的需求在过去曾经一度弥补了资本外流所带来的影响——包括进口需求。这些强劲需求促使美联储将加息作为首要考虑因素。然而，在过去十年当中，美国占全球商品进口的份额从16%降至13%。1994年，美国作为44个国家的最大出口市场，但如今这一数字降至32;而对于中国，这一数字则从2升至了43。美联储做出决策而全球为之颤动——这样的金融货币体系是不稳定的。

　　A second problem is the lack of a backstopfor the offshore dollar system if it faces a crisis. In 2008-09 the Fed reluctantly came to the rescue, acting as a lender of last resort by offering $1 trillion of dollar liquidity to foreign banks and central banks. The sums involved in a future crisis would be far higher. The offshore dollar world is almost twice as large as it was in 2007. By the 2020s it could be as big as America’s banking industry. Since 2008-09, Congress has grown wary of the Fed’s emergency lending. Come the next crisis, the Fed’s plans to issue vast swaplines might meet regulatory or congressional resistance. For how long will countries be ready to tie their financial systems to America’s fractious and dysfunctional politics?

　　其次，问题在于当面临危机时，离岸美元体系缺乏安全保障机制。在2008-09年，美联储勉为其难地进行救市——作为最后贷款者，其为外国银行和央行提供了1万亿美元的流动资金。在未来的危机中，该项总额将会更高。现今离岸美元的规模约是2007年时期的两倍。至2020年，离岸美元规模将与美国银行业不相上下。自2008-09年以后，国会对于美联储的应急贷款已十分警惕。当下次危机来临时，如果美联储发行巨大互换额度的计划，则极有可能会遭到监管机构或是国会的抵制。究竟需要多长时间，其他国家才能做好准备，将其金融体系与美国动荡且失调的政治相挂钩?

　　That question is underscoredby a third worry: America increasingly uses its financial clout as a political tool. Policymakers and prosecutors use the dollar payment system to assert control not just overwaywardbankers and dodgyfootball officials, but also errantregimes like Russia and Iran. Rival powers bridle at this vulnerability to American foreign policy.

　　再次，美国日益将其金融影响力作为一种政治工具(施展)，这使得上文问题尤为突出。政策制定者和检察官员利用美元支付系统不仅控制着难以掌控的银行家和狡猾的足协官员，而且还管制着“离经叛道”的政权，如俄罗斯、伊朗。(美国的)竞争对手们对于(自身)在美国外交政策中的脆弱性感到愤怒。

　　Americans may wonder why this matters to them. They did not force any country to link its currency to the dollar or encourage foreign firms to issue dollar debt. But the dollar’s outsize role does affect Americans. It brings benefits, not least cheaper borrowing. Alongside the “exorbitantprivilege” of owning the reserve currency, however, there are costs. If the Fed fails to act as lender of last resort in a dollar liquidity crisis, the ensuing collapse abroad will reboundon America’s economy. And even without a crisis, the dollar’s dominance will present American policymakers with a dilemma. If foreigners continue to accumulate reserves, they will dominate the Treasury market by the 2030s. To satisfy growing foreign demand for safe dollar-denominated assets, America’s government could issue more Treasuries—adding to its debts. Or it could leave foreigners to buy up other securities—but that might lead to asset bubbles, just as in the mortgage boom of the 2000s.

　　美国人可能会想知道为什么美元体系对他们来说如此重要。他们并没有迫使任何一个国家将本国货币与美元相挂钩，抑或鼓励外国企业发行美元债券。但美元巨大的作用确实影响着美国人。美元有着各种好处，尤其是更低的借贷成本。然而，除了拥有储备货币的“过分的特权”外，美元带来的好处是需要支付对价的，亦即存在成本因素。倘若在美元流动性危机中，美联储未能成功地发挥最后贷款人的作用，则接踵而至的国外经济崩盘将会对美国经济产生反弹。即便危机没有发生，美元的主导地位亦会使美国政策制定者陷入两难的窘境。如果外国人持续积累美元储量，那么至21世纪30年代他们将会称霸国债市场。为了满足(外国投资者)对安全的美元结算资产日益增长的需求，美国政府将发行更多的国债——这将会增加其负债额度。或者美国政府放松管制，让外国人购买其他的证券——但是，这将会导致资产泡沫，正如21世纪初的按揭热潮一样。

　　It’s all about the Benjamins

　　都是本杰明惹的祸

　　Ideally America would share the burden with other currencies. Yet if thehegemony of the dollar is unstable, its would-be successors are unsuitable. The baton of financial superpower has been passed before, when America overtook Britain in 1920-45. But Britain and America were allies, which made the transfer orderly. And America came with ready-made attributes: a dynamic economy and, like Britain, political cohesivenessand the rule of law (see article).

　　最理想的情况是，美国会与其他货币共担责任。然而，如果美元霸权地位不稳定，那么其潜在的继任货币亦无法胜任这一角色。当1920-45年美国超过英国时，金融超级强权的指挥棒经已交移。但英国和美国是同盟国，这使得金融强权的交移有条不紊。与此同时，美国接替金融货币强权有着现成的配套制度：动态经济，政治凝聚力以及法治。

　　Compare that with today’s contenders for reserve status. The euro is a currency whose very existence cannot be taken for granted. Only when the euro area has agreed on a full banking union and joint bond issuance will those doubts be fully laid to rest. As for the yuan, China’s government has created the monetary equivalent of an eight-lane motorway—a vast network of currency swaps with foreign central banks—but there is no one on it. Until China opens its financial markets, the yuan will be only a bit-player. And until it embraces the rule of law, no investor will see its currency as truly safe.

　　且将美元与现今竞争储备货币的竞争者进行比较。欧元并非一种“理所当然”存在的货币(意指欧洲各国经多方的多重努力才促成欧元诞生)。当且仅当欧元区对银行联盟和债券联合发行(等议题)达成一致协议，疑虑才得以消除。至于人民币：中国政府创造了相当于金融货币领域的“八车道高速公路”——一个与外国央行互换货币的巨大网络，但目前仍无国家参与进去。在中国开放金融市场之前，人民币只能是全球金融货币体系舞台上的龙套演员。与此同时，除非中国真正拥抱法治，没有投资者会认为中国的货币是真正安全的。

　　All this suggests that the global monetary and financial system will not smoothly or quicklywean itself offthe greenback. There are things America can do to shoulder more responsibility—for instance, by setting up bigger emergency-swaplines with more central banks. More likely is asplinteringof the system, as other countries choose toinsulatethemselves from Fed decisions by embracing capital controls. The dollar has no peers. But the system that it anchorsis cracking.

　　上文提及的所有种种都表明了这样一个事实——全球金融货币体系并不能让自己即时地、顺利地摆脱美元。美国能够采取一些措施来承担更多责任——例如，通过与更多央行建立起更大规模的应急互换额度。随着其他国家选择接纳资本控制以免受美联储决策的影响，美元体系的分裂更有可能发生。美元现仍无可替代，然而，它所巩固的经济体系正逐步分裂当中。

　　From the print edition: Leaders

　　Translated by : Weezy (email:userlam@hotmail.com)

　　Proofread by : qiangge ,shengling,chelsea0808

　　经济学人2015年7月份至9月份译文合集下载链接(点击阅读原文也可以下载)：http://pan.baidu.com/s/1ntNAeE1

　　Word List

　　1.supremacy：power to dominate or defeat

　　e.g. In the United States Open final, Graf retained overall supremacy.

　　在美国网球公开赛决赛中，格拉芙始终保持优势。

　　2.hegemony：the dominance or leadership of one social group or nation over others

　　e.g. So it will be with China and its impending hegemony: English is astride the globe to stay.

　　因此，英语将伴随中国及其未来霸权存在：英语将跨骑于地球继续主宰世界语言

　　3.greenback：a piece of paper money (especially one issued by a central bank)

　　e.g. The greenback, in other words, is not just America’s currency. It’s the world’s.

　　换句话说，美钞不仅仅是美国的货币，而且它还是世界的货币。

　　4.devilishly：(used as intensives) extremely

　　e.g. Flu has a devilishly efficient transmission mechanism.

　　流感有非常有效的传播机制。

　　5.buck：A buck is a US or Australian dollar.

　　e.g. That could help explain some of the slide the buck has suffered lately and —if true —it'd likely mean more downward dollar pressure to come.

　　这可能是美元汇率最近下跌的部分原因，如果真是这样，则可能意味着美元未来还会遭遇更多下行压力。

　　6.faultline：(geology) line determined by the intersection of a geological fault and the earth's surface

　　e.g. Other notable exhibits include “Faultline,” which teaches visitors about the science of earthquakes, and “Journey to Mars.”

　　其他有影响的展览包括"断裂层"(Faultline)，向观众介绍有关地震科学知识，以及"火星之旅"(Journey to Mars)等。

　　7.de facto：existing in fact whether with lawful authority or not

　　e.g. Founders usually have a lot of de facto control after a series A, as long as things are going well.

　　创始人们在首轮私募之后通常有很多实际上的控制权，只要一切进行得顺利。

　　8.gyration：If things such as prices or currencies gyrate, they move up and down in a rapid and uncontrolled way.

　　e.g. Interest rates began to gyrate up towards 20 per cent in 1980 and then down and up again.

　　1980年利率开始攀升至20%，随后又起伏不定。

　　9.batter：strike violently and repeatedly

　　e.g. He battered her around the head...

　　他连续重击她的头部。

　　10.dispense：administer or bestow, as in small portions

　　e.g. The Union had already dispensed £40,000 in grants...

　　工会已经拨款4万英镑。

　　11.convulse：If someone convulses or if they are convulsed by or with something, their body moves suddenly in an uncontrolled way.

　　e.g. Olivia's face convulsed in a series of twitches...

　　奥利维娅的脸上一阵抽搐。

　　12.backstop：a precaution in case of an emergency

　　e.g. As part of the plan, the government would insure new preferred debt issued by banks and backstop all non-interest paying deposits, the paper said on its Website.

　　该报在其网站报导,作为上述计划的一部分,美国政府将为银行新发行的优先债券提供担保,并支持其所有无息存款.

　　13.swap line：A currency swap (or a cross currency swap) is a foreign exchange derivative between two institutions to exchange the principal and/or interest payments of a loan in one currency for equivalent amounts, in net present value terms, in another currency.

　　e.g. The Swiss central bank swap line also got a boost to $27 billion from $12 billion before.

　　瑞士央行的互换额度从此前的120亿美元增加到270亿美元。

　　14.fractious：unpredictably difficult in operation; likely to be troublesome

　　e.g. This stance infuriates both the EU and the IMF, who worry that if Greece’s fractious politicians cannot unite even when bankruptcy threatens, then they have little chance of avoiding that fate.

　　这一姿态触怒了欧盟和国际货币基金组织，两者担心，如果破产也无法让倔强的希腊政客们团结起来的话，他们将几乎没有机会避免未来的命运。

　　15.dysfunctional：(of a trait or condition) failing to serve an adjustive purpose

　　e.g. In some way, to some extent, we’re all dysfunctional.

　　在某方面，在某种程度上，我们都有官能障碍。

　　16.underscore：If something such as an action or an event underscores another, it draws attention to the other thing and emphasizes its importance.

　　e.g. I want to underscore the importance of this task, and my personal commitment to it.

　　我要强调这一任务的重要性以及我个人对此的承诺。

　　17.wayward：resistant to guidance or discipline

　　e.g. While Paul is describing this behavior as the result of wayward passions, the chief sin is idolatry and separation from the one true God.

　　虽然保罗描述这种行为为任性激情的结果，主要的罪来自偶像崇拜，将一个人与独一的真神分开。

　　18.dodgy：If you describe someone or something as dodgy, you disapprove of them because they seem rather dishonest and unreliable.

　　e.g. But it is now clear that neither the dodgy sex nor the dubious business history should be the main reason for Italians looking back on Mr Berlusconi as a disastrous, even malign, failure.

　　但现在很清楚的是，无论是躲躲闪闪的性丑闻还是其可疑的商业记录都不应是意大利将贝卢斯科尼视为灾难、污点和失败的主要原因。

　　19.errant：Errant is used to describe someone whose actions are considered unacceptable or wrong by other people. For example, an errant husband is

　　e.g. For minor errors, such as a misspelled word, use the “strike” HTML tag to visibly put a line through the errant material — like this—and then add the correct word or words.

　　对于小的问题，就像拼错单词，用HTML标签在错误的材料下面画一条显著的线——像这样——然后加入正确的词或是句子。

　　20.rebound：a reaction to a crisis or setback or frustration

　　e.g. And, if the rebound is real, will it last?

　　以及如果反弹是真实的，那么它会持续吗?

　　21.denominate：assign a name or title to

　　e.g. Will China's currency be increasingly used to settle trade in Asia and, who knows, maybe even to denominate commodities?

　　人民币是否将更广泛地应用于亚洲贸易结算中,甚至还会成为大宗商品的计价货币?

　　22.baton: If someone passes the baton to another person, they pass responsibility for something to that person. If someone picks up the baton, they take over responsibility for something.

　　e.g. As soon as I walked in the restaurant, I saw him sitting by himself at a table, twirling an unlit cigarette through his fingers like a miniature baton.

　　一走进餐厅，我就看到他一个人坐在桌边，手里转动着一只没有点燃的香烟，好像在把玩一只小型警棍。

　　23.splinter: If something splinters or is splintered, it breaks into thin, sharp pieces.

　　e.g. If we tried to overthrow Qaddafi by force, our coalition would splinter.

　　如果我们试图以武力推翻卡扎菲，我们的联盟便会分裂。

　　24.anchor: If something is anchored in something or to something, it has strong links with it.

　　e.g. A united Germany must be firmly anchored in NATO if Europe is to remain stable...

　　欧洲要保持稳定，德国必须统一并固守北约。

　　Notes

　　[1] lender of last resort 最后贷款人

　　金融用语，,即按法律规定,商业银行对吸收的存款必须按照一定的比率(称为准备金率)交存于中央银行;充当最后贷款人( lender of last resort) ,即当商业银行支付困难、出现流动性危机时,中央银行必须提供资金支持,以防止出现金融挤兑风潮;组织全国性的清算。

　　[2] the Benjamins

　　这里的Benjamin指代的是印在美钞100刀上面的美国建国人物本杰明富兰克林(Benjamin Franklin)。本篇文章用Benjamin指代美元。对Benjamin感兴趣的Click here。

　　[3] currency swap 互惠外汇信贷,互惠信贷,互换货币

　　又称“货币互换”，是指为降低借款成本或避免远期汇率风险，将一种货币的债务转换成另一种货币的债务的交易。

　　举例来看，债务人A即将获得一笔日元贷款，金额为10亿日元，期限7年,利率为固定利率3.25%，付息日为每年6月20日和12月20日，1996年12月20日提款，2003年12月20日到期归还.。 A提款后,需要将其日元贷款换为美元使用,而整个贷款期间，A只有美元收入，没有日元收入。债务人A为控制汇率风险，决定与中行叙做一笔货币调期交易。双方规定，调期交易于1998年7月8日生效，2003年12月20日到期，使用汇率USDl=JPYl40.00， 美元相应利率为USD 6M LIBOR十0.85%。

　　[4] swap line 外汇互换额度，互换交易(swap transaction，Swaps)

　　互换交易，主要指对相同货币的债务和不同货币的债务通过金融中介进行互换的一种行为。

　　互换交易是继70年代初出现金融期货后，又一典型的金融市场创新业务。目前，互换交易已经从量向质的方面发展，甚至还形成了互换市场同业交易市场。在这个市场上，互换交易的一方当事人提出一定的互换条件，另一方就能立即以相应的条件承接下来。利用互换交易，就可依据不同时期的不同利率、外汇或资本市场的限制动向筹措到理想的资金，因此，从某个角度来说，互换市场是最佳筹资市场。总之，互换交易的开拓，不但为金融市场增添了新的保值工具，而且也为金融市场的运作开辟了新的境地。